New York Jets - Gang Green

Elmo!!

2007-11-09T15:00:00.001-05:00

Redirect

2006-10-20T21:57:00.000-04:00

For an actual Jets blog, you might want to visit here.

Marley Says "Go Jets".

2006-10-09T16:10:00.000-04:00

Nervous before Training Camp

2005-07-22T08:40:00.000-04:00

Am I the only person in Jets nation nervous about a few things that we haven't talked about on here yet?

Chad Pennington. He had a conference call yesterday with the Jets reporters in Hofstra. Chad isn't expected to be back to 100% until close to or around September 11th, which is the opening Sunday of the football season. Can you really go into the first game of the season playing 100% only for the first time in a year? Don't you need to play at 100% capacity at least once or twice before you get all your "game timing" back?

Maybe not. Maybe he can get back to his old self with a snap of the fingers, with gradually increasing his role in the Preseason. But if this is the plan (which everyone seems to say that it is), Chad NEEDS to play 2 to 3 quarters in the final preseason game. This is unheard of for a Jets starting quarterback. Gang Green has always been conservative during the last preseason game with their quarterbacks, but that precedent needs to change this year.

Final question on this topic: What happens when you reconstruct a shoulder of a quarterback that already had a weak arm in the first place?

John Abraham. My first reaction after hearing that he was going to hold out of training camp was "I wish the Jets had either traded him last year, or used the franchise tag on Lamont Jordan instead". Then I came to my senses, and realized what a defensive line would look like while losing John Abraham and Jason Ferguson in the same offseason.

With that thought out the window, I come to the realization that the Jets need Abraham. The Problem? He's always hurt. And if he gets hurt for an extended period this year with a franchise tag contract, the Jets would be able to say to themselves, "Well, we gave it a shot with him for one more year, but the pattern continues...", and then proceed to let him go to another team willing to take a chance with him next year.

Unfortunately, Abraham and his agent aren't stupid. They know their best chance to get a good long term contract is him signing RIGHT NOW with the Jets. They would risk losing everything if he played one year under a frachise tag contract. (Granted he would still have his $6M that he would be due to make this season under the contract, so don't feel sorry for the guy). So because of all this, they are trying to force the Jets hand to lock him up to a contract.

Gang Green needs to give Abraham his way. They can't go into the season with more of a depleted defensive line. Abraham is an unreliable player, he will come down with the flu and sit out a playoff game in the drop of a hat, but he is also a difference maker. The Jets need a difference maker.

Abraham gone bye-bye

2005-07-15T08:44:00.000-04:00

Thanks Donnie for the notice.

Two weeks before training camp starts, the Jets gaping hole in the secondary got even bigger. Who knew that was possible? Donnie Abraham FINALLY decided to retire, his agent announced yesterday.

Donnie waiting so long into the off season really created a stir in the Jets Organization. Apparently, most of the front office thought he was coming back for one more season. Why did they think that? Who knows, Donnie never really said that. Group think I guess. These guys would be perfect working for the CIA.

Anyway, the Jets immediately traded a sixth round pick to Dallas for a Bill Parcells reject, Pete Hunter. Who? He fell into Parcells' bad graces because he refused to move to safety last year. That's great, another safety caliber player playing cornerback for the Jets. What speed he must have.

Ty Law looks like a possibility. I read in the Daily News this morning that he is asking $6M per season. If they Jets give a 31 year old with a bad foot $6M a year, they really are fools, and will be even much better CIA candidates.

I do really want Ty Law on my team though. I think he's a good defensive leader, and still has some gas in the tank. But I would only want him if the asking price gets much much lower.

Mini-Camp

2005-05-06T15:33:00.000-04:00

Since my last post the Jets have gone through the weird mid-spring ritual of "mini-camp". This is when players come together "voluntarily" to work out with each other, in pads, and learn the system of their new teams, if necessary. This is interesting because, all the rookies come to mini-camp as well, most of them without contracts.

Obviously, there is no contact in mini-camp.

Some of the highlights? Not many...

1) Donnie Abraham retired. No big loss, he was small, and didn't have a nose for the ball when it comes to interceptions.

2) Kicker boy did well, after struggling the first day.

3) Everyone is giddy with the new offensive system. I've heard that before. Don't believe it just yet.

See you toward Training Camp time!! Should be a fun year, with a very interesting schedule! Haven't seen it? Check it out!!!

Joe Zibell's Baseball Writing

2005-04-28T20:47:00.000-04:00

The draft is now over, and it is a long way until Training Camps in LATE July. While you are enjoying your summer off, please don't hesitate to visit Joe Zibell's Baseball Writing Blog. As good as it gets.

Josh Evans

2005-04-28T08:34:00.000-04:00

It's official coming from Hempsted, LI, Josh Evans has announced his retirement after sitting out most of last season with a back injury.

Losing Josh last season never really came around to bite the Jets because of strong play from Dewayne Robertson and Jason Ferguson in the middle, but this coming season with Ferguson bolting to Dallas (reuniting with Parcells), this could become a weak spot for the Gang Green. More blockers may end up being able to get through those tackles, and into the face of Jonathan Vilma and alike.

The Jets spent a third round pick for a large Tackle out of Utah. However, as I repeated so many times during the 2003 season, large defensive tackles will take time to develop in this league just because of large differences between college and the pros. Therefore, he will probably not contribute much this season.

Keep an eye out for a veteran DT that gets cut after June 1st, and hopefully the Jets can swoop in and grab that person...

Per the NY Daily News, the Jets also signed Guard (Offensive) Brandon Moore to a long term extension.

Doug Brien

2005-04-27T09:23:00.000-04:00

The Jets are going to release Doug Brien around June 1st. According to published reports, they have given him permission to speak to other teams about a new job.

A no brainer decision here after picking a kicker as high as the Jets did. I'm not arguing with the thought process of picking a kicker, but you can't and don't have room under your salary cap for two pro kickers fighting for a job. Not taking up an extra roster spot either during training camp.

Doug got the Jets into the divisional round of the playoffs by hitting a field goal against San Diego... But that wasn't enough. Not when you had two chances to bring your team to the AFC Championship that following week, with two MAKEABLE kicks.

Sorry Doug, time to move on. Hope you get a chance to miss 45 yard game winning field goals somewhere else.

Johnny Sample

2005-04-27T09:18:00.000-04:00

Ex-Jet, NFL great Sample dead at 67

STAFF AND WIRE REPORTS

PHILADELPHIA - Johnny Sample, a defensive back who was on the winning side in two of the NFL's landmark games, including the Jets in Super Bowl III, died yesterday. He was 67.
His death was confirmed by Jeff Moran, a spokesman for the medical examiner's office in Philadelphia. Details were not immediately available.

Sample had an interception for the Jets in their 16-7 upset of the Baltimore Colts in the Super Bowl in 1969. That game, for which the Jets' Joe Namath "guaranteed" victory, established the old AFL on a par with the NFL after the two leagues merged.

Earlier, Sample played for the Colts in the 1958 NFL championship game against the Giants that is still often described as "The Greatest Game Ever Played." The Colts won 23-17, the first game to go to overtime.

"On behalf of the Jets organization, we are saddened and extend our heartfelt condolences to the family of Johnny Sample. Johnny dedicated his life to football and had a passion for the game. He will always have a special place in Jets' history," Jets coach Herman Edwards said. "The Jets and the NFL community have lost a friend in Johnny Sample." In all, Sample played 11 seasons for the Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Redskins and the Jets. The 1958 title game was in his rookie season and the 1969 game was his last.

"His participation in two of the most significant games in NFL history, the 1958 championship game and Super Bowl III, symbolized the champion John was," Colts owner Jim Irsay said.
Known as a fierce hitter from his cornerback position, Sample had 41 interceptions during his career, returning four for touchdowns, and also returned one punt and one kickoff for a TD. In his final year with the Jets, he had seven interceptions.

Born in Philadelphia, he attended Overbrook High School at the same time as Wilt Chamberlain and played in college at Maryland-Eastern Shore.

WBC middleweight champion Bernard Hopkins said he knew Sample for 18 years.

"He was a stand-up, speak-his-mind kind of guy," Hopkins said. "It's like getting hit with a right hand that you can't shake off. He is my best older, elder friend."

Week 5 Picks

2004-10-10T08:40:00.000-04:00

I'm currently in a picks pool, and for the past several weeks I've doing various write-ups on the NFL games. Use these recommendations at your own peril!

In my pool I have to pick a select number of games and put a weight on them. So for 25 games, I have to rank them 1-25; my 25-point game is the one I'm most confident with. My 1-point game is the one with the least amount of confidence.

I picked 10 college games yesterday. That means I have 15 NFL picks to choose. I can pick either ATS or Over/Under totals.

Anyway, these write-ups are just meant for fun, just a chance to analyze the match-ups. Enjoy the games.

Miami at New England (-13), Total: 34.5

This line is right about where it should be, and one with a 23-10 final in mind. The Dolphins haven’t given up 20 points, but that doesn’t mean they won’t in their toughest spot, against the toughest opponent they’ve played so far. And certainly vs. the best offense they’ve played to this point.

Against a Top 10 defense (Buffalo), the Pats racked up 31 points, and nearly 400 total yards.

How much longer can the Miami defense keep the weight of the team (and any shred of respectability) solely on its back? In one of these games the dam is going to break, and they won’t lose 17-9; they’ll lose by a more ugly-looking margin. This could be the week.

No team protects their QB better than the Patriots, and it’s likely they will be able to put some points on the board.

While the Pats’ pass defense is excellent (YPG and sack numbers are both very good), the run defense is not. The best way to move the ball is stay away from throwing into Belichek’s defensive backfield and just try to smash into their defensive line. However, there is nothing the Dolphins have shown that would lead anyone to believe they’re going to run the ball vs. New England.

The Dolphins’ offense has been putrid, and while the QB situation is a mess (Jay Fiedler, once a decent QB, now looks as if he forgot how to play football), the running game has been even worse. YPG: 59.8, YPR: 2.7 – both figures are last in the NFL.

I’m going to stay away from the 13-point line. In a game that will probably be decided by the 3rd quarter, it’s begging for a late score to swing it one way or the other.

What I am considering is the total: a tiny 34.5, the 2nd lowest total of the week. Last year, in the two NE/Miami games, the Under was the play both times: In October, the total was 32 on a 37 point line; In December, the total was 12 (a 12-0 NE shutout) on a 33.5 point line.

A couple of my reasons for this: 1) I have the idea in my head that if Miami continues to play offense like they’re playing underwater, the defense is going to lose interest in the 2nd half of one of these games 2) New England’s offense looks damn efficient right now. They sliced their way through a good Buffalo defense last week.

Then again, this game could be staring 20-3 right in the face… Final decision: No play

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-6) Total: 37

Pittsburgh is a solid home favorite vs. the Browns. Don’t really know much about these two teams at this point. Browns struggle to score 20 points against decent defenses (Dallas, New York and Washington), but they’ve only really had one terrible outing (in New York) where a game really got away from them.

Is Pittsburgh good enough for this line? They’ve really played garbage teams the past two weeks, which might be inflating the line a tad. And it looks like they play to the range of their competition. The Miami game (on a post-hurricane field) played to form, as did the Cincy game last week.

If this was to play to form, I’d expect about 13-17 points for the Browns and 19-21 points for Pittsburgh.

I don’t see much of a reason to play with the six points, but the Over might be a play. I don’t see anything vaunted about the Steelers defense (I think it’s more of a reflection of the QBs they’ve played against) that makes me think that Cleveland will move the ball at least a little bit…

Tough call… Final decision: No play

Oakland at Indianapolis (-9.5) Total: 52.5

This line looks a bit high at 9.5. The Colts certainly have it in them to soar past 30 in this game and could win by a couple of touchdowns. But there might be some value in picking Oakland off a loss to Houston, and a bad performance by Kerry Collins.

I have little doubt in my mind that Oakland is going to score points. I have also little doubt that Indy is going to score points as well. The total is the highest of the week: 52.5, and this could sail past that robust amount.

If the Raiders score 24-27, can they keep the Colts in the 32-35 range? Maybe…

I think the Raiders getting 9.5 is a pretty good play. I’m going to bank that Collins will be able to throw the ball at will against that suspect Indy secondary, and keep his team within 10 points. The total is so high, that I’m a little wary of going with it. If I had to pick, I’d take the Over.

Final decision: Oakland +9.5, my 3 point game

Detroit at Atlanta (-6.5) Total: 41

That win in Carolina really swung public opinion back in the Falcons’ favor. They are easily pacing the league in rushing yards/game (174) with Warrick Dunn avg. over 4 yds/carry and the ever-present prospect of Vick on the loose. Even T.J. Duckett has pitched in with 121 yards.

The good news for the Lions is that they’ve fared well against the run (less than 100 ypg) in the early going.

The bad news is that Atlanta’s defense has been excellent, albeit against a couple of offensively challenged teams of late (Arizona and Carolina). Detroit’s offensive rankings are near the bottom of the league; Atlanta’s defense (12 ppg) is right at the top. And they’ve accumulated a bunch of sacks (16) as well.

I just don’t see that there’s going to be a lot points in this one, and yet the total (41) is only one of five games that are +40 on the point total.

In a game that I think both teams are going to struggle to get to 20, 6.5 is a decent size spread. I’ll probably stay away from it, but would lean towards the Lions coming off a bye with a good coach.

Final decision: Lions +6.5 is my 1 point game. The Under is my 15-point pick (higest of my NFL picks today)

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3)

Alright, which way are we going to go with the Saints this week? They lost the first two games of the season ATS as home favorites, including one game as big favorites against the 49ers. They came back as road dogs and covered vs. the Rams. And then predictably didn’t cover as a road favorite in Arizona…

They’re home against the beleaguered Bucs with an invitingly low line of -3.

Tampa can play the pass (4th in passing yards against), but they can’t play the run anymore. They allow 126.5/g, which is partly a reflection that teams have been playing with leads against them in the 2nd half, but also a reflection that the defense isn’t what it once was.

I think the fact they played the Broncos tough at home probably swung the line back down a bit. But the Broncos aren’t any great shakes either offensively…

Although trying to stay with the Saints is like trying to hold onto the back end of a roller coaster, I’m going to pick their game for the 4th week in a row. I think they’ll score some points (at least 21), and although the Saints defense is not good (26.8 ppg), the Bucs offense led by Chris Simms won’t be lighting up the scoreboard.

I’m going to stay away from the total, but would lean to the over.

Final decision: Saints -3, my 5 point game

New York Giants at Dallas (-3.5) Total: 37.5

The Giants and Cowboys have played a relatively similar schedule. Both teams opened with brutal road games (at Minny, at Philly) and didn’t fare well.

And they’ve both played the Browns and Redskins. The Giants have one extra game b/c of Dallas’ bye last week.

B/c of the similarities, a statistical comparison is probably a little more helpful here than for other match-ups with big schedule disparities.

Rushing Offense (YPR/YPG)
New York: 5.03/148.2
Dallas: 3.53/82.3

Passing Offense (YPG/QB Rating)
New York: 222.5/88.47
Dallas: 3.53/83.41

Rushing Defense (YPR/YPG)
New York: 4.68/113.5
Dallas: 4.69/122

Passing Defense (YPG/QB Rating/Sacks)
New York: 227/79.06/10
Dallas: 211.7/86.07/8

Turnover Ratio
New York: +10
Dallas: -3

Okay, what’s the first thing you think about when I say “Giants/Cowboys” and then say “Coughlin/Parcells?” Well, I don’t know about you but I think about defense, defense, defense. Except, look at these numbers… Neither team is a defensive powerhouse, and consider that four of the seven games these teams have played have been against offensively-challenged Cleveland and Washington.

Looking at these numbers (and remembering that Vinny Testaverde will take a sack every now and then, not to mention throw a pick), I don’t see much of a reason not to take the Giants and the points. Of course, I smell a trap here… Or maybe that it’s just Dallas is at home, and people aren’t sold on the Giants yet.

Either way, I’ll take the points in this rivalry game.

The total is a tough call. Right on the money at 37.5. I’d probably take the Under, but with not a lot of confidence.

Final decision: Giants +3.5, my 8 point pick

Minnesota (-4) at Houston

I sense a lot of people are going to jump on the Texans' bandwagon this week, and pick them as a home dog after covering easily against the Raiders last week, and winning as huge road dogs at Kansas City the week before.

One thing you can bank on, Houston is going to score some points against that Minnesota D. As I wrote last week, Houston’s offensive output has been consistent all season long: 20-16-24-30. They had one slip up on the road in Detroit, but other than that they look to be a lock for about 21 points/game. I would imagine they’re going to hit at least 24 at home against that defense. *I should mention that Minnesota’s poor defensive rankings (their PTS allowed total is middle of the pack), is due to their bad pass defense numbers (30th in the league in passing yards allowed/game). Their run defense is Top 10 in the league.

But how many are they going to give up? Houston’s pass defense (198.5 ypg) isn’t a huge problem, but their run defense is. Ranked 25th at 133.8 ypg. Keep in mind they’ve had to go against Tomlinson and Holmes already, but that’s a pretty hearty total. Minnesota’s rushing numbers, while not as good as their passing numbers, are still very good. They’re at 100+ ypg and run at 4.32 y/r.

50 is the point total for this game, and it’s certainly justified. For the Vikes to cover the four, I suspect they’re going to have to hit at least 29. The problem is that the Texans points allowed are on a steady decline since week 1: 27-28-21-17. And those last two numbers are against good offensive teams (Kansas City and Oakland).

The play here is Houston. For Minnesota to cover with 25, they’d have to hold the Texans to 20. 1) I don’t think it’s a lock that Minnesota will score high 20s in this spot and 2) I’m not convinced that the Texans will be held down at 20 or 21. They might reach 24-27 against that defense.

Final decision: Texans +4, my 4 point pick

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-6.5) Total: 37

Here are the Bills’ point totals for their first three games: 13, 13, 17 – against two very good defenses, and one average defense.

The Jets are a still an average defense (but getting better), and are allowing 20+ ppg. My guess is that today is the first week the Bills crack 20. The problem is, I think the Jets will sail past 20 as well.

All week I was on this game, thinking the Bills + the points. However, now that it’s down to 6.5 and seeing how banged up the Bills are, especially in the secondary, I’m hedging my bet on this one.

The desperate Bills playing a division game, Mularky still looking for win #1 might be a light play. Jets are 3-0 ATS; Bills are 0-3.

I do like the Over.

Final decision: Over 37, my 14 point pick

Jacksonville (-3) @ San Diego

My initial lean tells me Jacksonville. The Jags are a sharp 3-1 ATS against some good competition, but they have been Dogs in every game. This is their first spot as a favorite, and it’s on the road to boot.

Their pass defense rankings are very good, but surprisingly, their rushing defense numbers are just average (16th in ypg).

I don’t mind taking the Jags in this spot (I’m still not much of a believer in San Diego), but what’s the point in pushing on 3, which is what I think could easily happen.

I’ll take my chances and would rather play the Under. San Diego will be able to run a little, but not pass. Jacksonville could pass if it had a better passing game…

Final decision: Under 36.5, my 7 point pick; Jacksonville -3 is my 2 point pick

Carolina at Denver (-5.5), Total: 37.5

I’m a little worried about Carolina’s D in this spot. But in the area where they’ve really struggled (rush defense), I’m not sure Denver will be able to take advantage with Griffin injured. Plummer doesn’t figure to do much against a pass defense that is allowing opposing QBs a 73.42 rating (and that includes games against Favre, Green and Vick).

On the other side of the ball, I’m not expecting much from the Carolina offense. Denver’s defense has played very well, having allowed only 20 points once in a game (opening week to the Chiefs).

Carolina has to shoot for 16 and hope for the best. Denver probably will do just enough to win. The Under is a pretty good play, as is taking Carolina plus the points.

Final decision: Carolina +5.5, my 11 point pick; the Under is my 10 point pick

St. Louis @ Seattle (-7)

Seattle is now getting big lines in its favor, as they have surged to the top of the heap in the NFL. Their point differential is jaw-dropping as they’re scoring 21.7 and allowing a miniscule 4.3 ppg. Their opponents have been New Orleans, Tampa and San Francisco, but still… 4 points a game are 4 points a game.

The rushing numbers against are best in the league, and opposing QBs have by far the lowest rating against Seattle.

Will St. Louis be able to make any dent in that D, off an extra week of rest?

The Rams are no longer the Greatest Show on Turf, but they still have a good offense. They can still run, and their QB rating is still +90; they score 20.8/g.

I’m not convinced they’ll be able to do much against this defense, however. And with Seattle likely to sail past 20 points in this one, I don’t mind laying the seven. A light play, but I’d go with the home team in this one.

Final decision: Seattle -7, my 6 point game

Arizona at San Francisco (-1) Total: 37

Ooooh… this is an ugly one. Both offenses are terrible; both teams score right around 15 ppg. QB ratings are almost identical (low 70s).

When looking at the statistical comparisons between these two, one number jumps up and down off the page and waves its hands: San Francisco is allowing opposing QBs a 106.47 rating. That is colossally bad. (The next worst team is Green Bay at 102).

I don’t see any convincing reason to take the 49ers in this spot. They showed some spunk early in the season, covering as Dogs against Atlanta and New Oreleans. But they didn’t come close in Seattle as double-digit Dogs, and they were lackluster against the mediocre Rams at home in primetime.

Arizona is still floating under the radar a bit, and I’ll take them to win this one outright. The play is Under 37.

Final decision: Under 37, my 12 point pick; Cards +1, my 9 point pick

Baltimore at Washington (Pick 'em)

Just when you thought the ugly games were over for the week, this gem comes rolling down the pike.

The Redskins have been a mess offensively. Defensively, they’ve been fine. The only game they allowed more than 20 was against the Giants, a game in which they turned the ball over seven times.

I like the Ravens in this spot. They’re coming off a home MNF loss in which they were huge favorites (always affects the line), and they could fall two behind Pittsburgh with a loss here in the early going. I like Billick over Gibbs right now in the coaching department as well.

I usually don’t like relying on transient things like “motivation” and “emotion” in picking football games, but I’m going to use some of those things in picking the Ravens. With the impending loss of Lewis for a couple games, they need this win. And I have a feeling they’re not going to be in the best of moods… The total is the lowest of the week… If either team hits 20, you probably push… I’ll stay away from that number.

Final decision: Ravens, my 13 point pick

Tennessee at Green Bay (-3)

What do you do with this game? Both teams struggling, trying to regain their footing, coming off three losses in a row since opening week wins. What team finds its way back into the season? Which one falls off into 1-4 oblivion?

Both defenses have been disappointments. They both are allowing a bunch of rushing yards, an equal amount actually: 131 ypg. And Tennessee’s defense is marginally better than Green Bay’s, which has been awful.

I give Fisher a huge coaching edge over Sherman, but I thought that the Titans would be well-prepped to win in San Diego last week, and that didn’t come close to happening.

My play would be Tennessee + points. But I’m not touching the line or the total. This might be the toughest game to call of the year so far…

Final decision: No play

Recap

15: Detroit/Atlanta Under
14: Jets/Bills Over
13: Baltimore Ravens
12: Cardinals/49ers Under
11: Carolina Panthers +5.5
10: Broncos/Panthers Under
9: Arizona Cardinals +1
8: New York Giants +3.5
7: Jacksonville/San Diego Under
6: Seattle -7
5: New Orleans -3
4: Houston +4
3: Oakland +9.5
2: Jacksonville -3
1: Detroit Lions +6.5

The last two weeks, I'm 15-11-2 in my NFL pix. Let's see how this week shakes out.

-- Joe

Lamont

2004-09-03T08:41:00.000-04:00

Is anyone not sick of Lamont Jordan and his playing time issue? If you aren't sick of hearing about it let me know. Because I don't think there is anyone out there that is not sick of it like I am. And then I will be proved wrong.

Trade him.

Finally!!!!

2004-09-02T09:50:00.000-04:00

Finally, Santana Moss with play for the first time this preseason against the Eagles on Friday night. He was sidelined with a hamstring injury almost the entire camp.

What a great season Moss had last year, but I never stop worrying about his health. That's never a good thing when thinking about a football player.

Pennington signed a huge contract. I hope Mike Tannenbaum thought out the salary cap issues correctly. I'm not worried though, Tannenbaum is the best salary cap man in the business.

Catch Up

2004-08-30T15:01:00.000-04:00

It's been a little while since my last post on this site, so I decided to take some time out of my day for a quick recap of some issues that are outstanding.

The Jets have had a couple of preseason games since we last saw each other, with very different results.

Against the Colts, the Jets Defense returned somewhat to earlier form, by getting run over in the first half. James ran all over the field and all over the Jets. Missed tackles and John Abraham all contributed to the disaster for the run defense. The Secondary actually impressed a little bit. Getting a big pick off of Peyton Manning.

The Giants game was a tale of a different defense. The Jets D had a field day with Eli Manning on the field. The Jets looked quick and alert, and impressed this skeptical fan. I've always thought the third preseason game was always the key, since the starters are basically ready, and there is not yet the cautiousness that comes into play during the forth game. It's usually a barometer on how the team is progressing. The Defense is making big strides. But it's a marathon. Building a defense is a marathon.

Some other notes:

Curtis Martin is getting a ton of carries this preseason. For any normal back, this would be alarming. But this veteran seems to play his best when he is either 1) hurt or 2) tired. Let's just be safe, and keep Curtis tired, not injured.

Lamont Jordan is still on this team, and still mopping around Hofstra. Please trade this guy.

The Secondary is going to have some young exciting players playing a lot. Reggie Tongue has all but lost his job to rookie SS Coleman. And since Ray Mickens is a little banged up, Derrick Strait will be used more often than not as a nickel back.

Wayne Chrebet is doing terrible apparently. His thigh (or whatever that is that's hurt) is doing poorly. I won't be surprised if he doesn't come back until after the first couple of weeks of the season. Even then, what can you expect from a guy coming back from post concussion syndrome, and someone who hasn't been hit in game action in a year? I think it's a great time for Jerricho Cotchery to step up and become a good possession receiver in his first year.

After years of watching John Hall and pulling my hair out, it's really refreshing to have Doug Brien on your team. We maybe giving up some longer field goals, but in the end, the consistency makes up for that. He has been 6 for 6 in the preseason.

Jets are close to signing Chad Pennington and possibly Shaun Ellis to extensions. I'm glad to hear that. Also glad to hear the Jets may not even bother to talk to John Abraham about an extension. Good. Talk about the biggest one dimensional player on this team (along with Bryan Thomas, remember him?). He cannot, under any circumstances, stop the run.

I'll leave reiterating my excitement about this Jets Defense. Joe (my fellow contributor to this blog) has gotten me even more excited. How? He actually mentioned to me how happy he was with the development of this defense. Joe is usually level headed about such things, so his saying that really makes me stand up and take notice. It should be a fun season.

Next game vs. Philly on Friday night. "Just don't hurt yourself" should be the motto.

My favorite 4th round pick

2004-08-18T08:49:00.000-04:00

The bandwagon is getting full...

And here's another one!

Newspaper Read

2004-08-14T10:04:00.000-04:00

A glowing critique of the Jets game last night by Rich Cimini in the NY Daily News. He seemed very excited about some of the new things the Jets defense is doing. To be honest, I have to agree with him. This seems like they are taking some chances, and being aggressive and proactive instead of reactive. Nice.

Of course, something to keep in mind is Reggie/Ronnie/Ronald Tongue (SS) and Eric Barton (LB) didn't play. Those two are projected to start on this defense. So the defense wasn't full "strength". I hesitate to use the word "strength" when mentioning the Jets D.

All the local papers today are saying good things about RB Jonathan Reese. Things like "it will be hard for the Jets to cut him...". If this is the case, isn't this a good time to trade Lamont Jordan? I reiterate my view that it's time to let him fly somewhere else.

Friday the 13th - Jets/Saints

2004-08-13T21:03:00.000-04:00

9:30pm

See below for some analysis of some interesting stats in the first half of the Jets/Saints preseason game.

It is halftime now, and the first half of the first preseason game is all that matters. Second half involves most people just fighting for a job.

Jon McGraw had an interception in the first half. It's time for him to break out this season. If not; that draft pick was a bust. What was he a 3rd round pick? I'm not sure, but 3 years is enough to develop for a Safety.

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9:15pm

Bollinger is proving me wrong. He's 4 for 6 for 43 yards on this current Jets drive. My unsung draft pick Cotchery has 2 catches for 22 yards. I tell you, he WILL contribute to this receiving corps this year.

Jonathan Reese is getting some carries in this first half in place of Martin and Jordan. He has 11 carries for 40 yards. He was on the Jets in 2003, but didn't carry the football.

Brien kicked his second field goal.

(I am not concerned about the score. It's how you LOOK not whether you win or lose. Especially in the first preseason game.)

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I'm sitting here at 9pm tonight getting my first glimpse of the stats on the internet of tonight's game so far. I will be watching the game on tape tomorrow morning courtesy of the NFL Network.

Brian Bollinger has two fumbles, losing both of them. First of all, how long will it take Terry Bradway to sign a veteran backup? The line starts at 2 days. Any betters? Secondly, I hope this doesn't have something to say about the O-line. We shall see when I watch the game tomorrow.

The Jets rushing defense. 6 minutes left in the first half, the Saints have 76 yards rushing, including two rushes over 20 yards. I just wrote an e-mail to a fellow Jets fan telling him that I was about to puke over that stat. Of course, keep telling yourself how early in the preseason it is. Keep telling yourself how this defense has to gel.

Vilma has four tackles. Is this due to lack of good defensive line play? I hope not. I hope it means this kid is all over the field... I can't tell that by just stats.

Doug Brien. Just consistent as heck last year. Couldn't have asked for more from him. Would really "like" some more leg strength, but I'll take consistency over length and inconsistency (i.e. John Hall) any day.

I'll try to write more later....

First workday in August

2004-08-02T09:07:00.000-04:00

It's Monday morning and it's the first workday in the month of August. Just about six weeks left until opening Sunday of the football season.

Reggie/Ronnie/Ramon Tongue is to miss three or four days because of a strained calf. Really unknown how this happened because the guy hasn't been on the practice field for the Jets yet. Erik Coleman who is a 5th round draft choice is practicing in the shoes of Tongue. The coaches are saying that they are impressed with Coleman's "quick grasping of the playbook". Unfortunately, it seems everytime coaches say something like that about a player, he ends up being slow as molasses.

The NY Media keeps living it up on Wayne Chrebet. Let's give those beat writers some advice. ONE article about Chrebet and his "come back" is sufficient. When you start mentioning it everyday, it gets annoying.

I guess all Jets fans are asking if this is the year that the Jets realize that Abraham is over-hyped, and injury prone. Here's another example of his over-hype. Everything is always so rosey and sweet in training camp.

Josh Evans is supposedly having a wonderful camp so far (in 3 entire days), and says he isn't ready to concede the starting job yet to Dwayne Robertson. I'm glad to hear this, because I like Evans a lot, and I think the Jets missed him tremendously in the first half of last season. Here is the proposed rotation at defensive tackle: Evans, Robertson, Jason Ferguson and James Reed. That could be a nice little rotation in the middle, only if Robertson becomes the solid player he should.

However, this will only be Robertson's second season. Defensive tackle, more than any other position on the football field is tough for a young player to make an impact right away. That was my line last year, and is still my line this year. It seems all great defensive tackles have taken time to develop their bodies to a point where they can lean against and beat a solid offensive lineman, and take on a double team. I am, more than the media seems to be, willing to give Robertson more time. In the league of win now, I'm willing to give Dwayne years to develop.

Last year, the Jets never practiced on Sunday during training camp. The "new" Edwards had them practicing yesterday and again in two weeks on August 15th.

The terror warning level has been raised to Orange for financial buildings in NYC, Northern NJ and Washington DC. This is based on information obtained by the CIA. Unfortunately the CIA also had asserted that Iraq had WMD's, gotten materials from Africa for Nuclear Weapons, and had floated the theory that Al Qaeda had ties with Iraq. Why should we, or can we, believe them now? That's what this country has come to. We can't figure out what to believe out of this government anymore. Do something.

First Day of Practice

2004-07-30T08:49:00.000-04:00

Today is the first day of practice, and there was a few items of interest in the papers this morning, but nothing big.

The rest of the Jets draft picks were signed yesterday, including Jerricho Cotchery. Meanwhile, I learned that Cotchery has had a hamstring problem in the last few weeks and maybe slowed a little in the first few practices. Not a good start for my favorite late round pick.

I wrote yesterday about Herman Edwards changing personality. He responded to this yesterday in his press conference:

"The big buzz is that I've changed. Well, you're wrong, I haven't changed at all. I'm a little bit more detailed and a little bit more matter-of-fact, but my personality, my passion for football, hasn't changed a bit....If you expect me to starting running around, hollering and cussing and scolding players in the newspapers, I'm not going to do that."

I'm going to stop making a big deal out of this. Herman can change all he wants, as long as he makes a run at a playoff spot this year, I'll be happy. With the Dolphins in a state of shambles, that expectation is certainly be more likely than a week ago.

All the talk this morning around the paper scene is of Chad Pennington's contract and Wayne Chrebet. Chad and the team has set a September 1st deadline for getting a deal done. If it isn't worked out by then, talks will be tabled until the end of the season. I'm not worried, it will get done before or after the season. Chad isn't going anywhere.

As for Chrebet, he is insisting that he will start training camp at 100%, and will play that way. This is opposed to the reports yesterday that he will not overwork himself and "end his career" in training camp.

The Start

2004-07-29T09:05:00.000-04:00

Today is the start of training camp. Players report and two-a-days start tomorrow. A time for optimism and a time for new hope. A time to realize this hot summer will finally be over soon (hot in this part of the US at least).

Football is upon us, and finally I can stop constantly praying that George Bush loses in November. I just wish the Jets will not be losing much in November.

Let's get started:

Wayne Chrebet and (what a shock) John Abraham may be limited during most, if not all, of two a days during this training camp. Chrebet is coming off very bad concussion problems and Abraham off groin surgery. (Let's hope that surgery didn't involve an implant). Anyway, Chrebet is telling everyone that he is healthy but "doesn't want to end his career on the practice field". If he believes he is that close to losing his career, than maybe Wayne should think about calling it a career. But I don't want to get in the habit of telling players when and when not to retire.

Brooks Bollinger and Ricky Ray will start training camp as Pennington's backup. Those two have names that sound like they should be in a boy band somewhere. Remember 1999, Parcells took a big gamble going into the season without a capable backup, and it hurt the team in the long run. If you don't learn from history, you are destined to repeat it.

My favorite pick, Jerricho Cotchery, is getting ready to report to camp. I will try to update you on his progress this training camp. I'm optimistic that he can make the team and contribute.

I'm always skeptical of coaches that change their demeanor or way of doing things in the middle of their run with a team. It screams to me as desperation sometimes. This is from Rich Cimini today:

According to several players, Edwards is more business-like than ever, showing a more authoritative side. They expect a more intense camp than the previous three, if not a more physically demanding one. "This," Edwards said, "will be the best camp we've had competition-wise."

Future Free Agents

2004-07-28T08:25:00.000-04:00

Rich Cimini today in his article, listed the free agents the Jets need to concentrate on during training camp to prevent them from becoming restricted or unrestricted free agents after this season. Let's review them one by one, in order of importance:

Chad Pennington. How can you put your franchise quarterback anywhere but on the top of this list? Critics may argue that he had only one full great season, and that his injury prone season last year can not be used to judge his future quarterback potential. They will also point to his weak arm. I can't buy the critics arguments. This team hasn't had a franchise type quarterback in decades. The worst thing this front office needs is to have a mess on their hands next offseason because Chad isn't under contract yet. He needs to be first, and then move on from there.
Shaun Ellis. Last year was really Shaun's breakout year. He has been hampered by his inexperience and mistakes by the coaching staff trying to turn him into something that he was not - a tackle. He excelled last year at his end position opposite John Abraham. The most important thing is that he is not as injury prone as Abraham.
Jason Ferguson. I had a hard time picking between Ellis and Ferguson for #2 and #3. I can end up calling Ferguson 2a. However, I put Ellis ahead because of one major problem with Ferguson's game. He didn't help the Jets stop the run last year. In 2002, the Jets missed Ferguson desperately and finally started to settle down without him. After his return in 2003, he was supposed to solidify a defensive line that the Jets touted as scary to opponents. It turns out the entire defense was scary to the fans. However, linebackers and secondary was the major problem. Fergy was solid with a bad supporting cast last year. He obviously couldn't do it on his own, but he will be needed in the future.
Kareem McKenzie. I don't think the Jets will sign him. He is a solid offensive lineman, and I would argue that they really NEED to sign him, but some team out there will overpay for him. Teams do that, and other desperate things, when they need O-line help. Proof? Teams actually signed Jeff Criswell and Jeff Cadigan after they left the Jets. If that isn't desperate, I don't know what is. McKenzie, is unfortunately, probably gone.
John Abraham. The Jets should have traded him for T. Owens last year. This year I hope they trade him for a slice of pizza. Injury prone and a whiner. Get the heck out of here. (Of course, I'm hoping that I will be able to eat my words.)
LaMont Jordon. Give the kid a break, let him go somewhere else and play. Trade him for something. Curtis Martin can still run with the football, and it's not difficult to find quality backup running backs. Look at Denver. They cultivate running backs in their back yard. (By the way, I think the Redskins made an awful trade in the offseason. Daniel Snyder can suck my.... John Hall.)
Anthony Becht. Get out. I will pay you out of my own pocket if you would just leave.

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Interesting structure to the Vilma contract. According to the NY Daily News there was NO signing bonus, but a $1.2 Million "reporting bonus", and a $6 Million option bonus in 2005, which he would certainly collect. As I said, the Jets know the salary cap very well, and this must have been done for a reason. Possibly also to save Woody Johnson some money upfront to pay to Pennington and others (see above) in the form of a signing bonus.

Joe/WFAN/Vilma

2004-07-27T11:15:00.000-04:00

My fellow contributor to this blog (Joe) is reporting that WFAN in New York is reporting that the New York Jets have signed Jonathan Vilma today. I don't know when it will be officially announced or even more widely reported, but I will take this opportunity to give a hats off to this front office. They may be inept in free agency, but they really know their numbers and the salary cap.

Vilma was the 12th pick in this year's NFL draft out of the University of Miami. He is reported to be 6-1, 230 pounds, and very very quick. Undersized doesn't bother me, but I'm really happy that he is reported to be fast. That was the major downfall of the Jets last year; lack of team speed.

Update:

See story on this signing.

Vilma

2004-07-26T16:13:00.000-04:00

The Jets head into training camp this week and the minds of the front office employees should be on one thing. Signing Jonathan Vilma. This front office has a history of only a few things. First of losing high caliber free agents. They definitely have lived up to that in this off season. Secondly, they have a history of avoiding holdouts from their first round picks. That is what's important currently.

Sign Vilma, bring him in to camp, and let him learn learn learn learn, grow grow grow grow and develop develop develop develop.

That's the top priority.

Herm's Quote Bag

2004-07-26T10:03:00.000-04:00

Here's a quote from Herman Edwards in today's Journal News (Westchester County Newspaper):

"Sam is going in as the starter,'' said Jets coach Herman Edwards, leaving open the idea that the matter isn't settled. "What's great about our linebacking situation is we've gotten better. At the end of the year, we had to upgrade. We did, and now we've got to get them running in the same direction.''

Nice to know that the goal going into camp is for the linebackers to "run in the same direction". This obviously wasn't emphasized as a goal last year.

He is of course, talking about Sam Cowart who the coaches are moving inside to middle linebacker and letting him compete for the starting job. As a formality, he was already named the starter, but I can't imagine they won't give the young Vilma a chance at middle in addition to weak side. Sam is the only holdover of the old feeble linebackers the Jets had last year.

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NFL Network replayed two Jets games yesterday on "NFL Replay". If you don't know what this show is, they replay well played games from the last 5-7 years in a two hour quick format. Halftime and some in between play time is cut out, but every play in the game is shown.

What makes this better than the older NFL Films "Greatest Games Ever" format, is the feed on this game is the network feed with the network announcers. It is like watching an actual football game, but it moves faster and has less commercials. It's fun to look back on some games you have forgotten about, and watch it unfold, and hear what the announcers had to say.

Yesterday's action on the NFL network included Jets/Patriots opening day 1999. Vinny getting injured. Fortunately, I had plans and didn't watch that. Additionally they had opening day 1998 Jets/49ers. I DID watch the second half of that game. What a shoot out that turned out to be. Glenn Foley. Where are you now? I flashed back to watching that game in my parents basement with friends, and being so upset afterward. If only I knew what was about to come later on in that magical season...

A Shake Up

2004-07-26T09:38:00.000-04:00

A shake up in the AFC east just days before the Jets and the rest of the league opens training camp. By shake up, I mean, the honor of finishing in second place this year could be up for grabs. All three teams (Miami, Buffalo and the Jets) have a chance to capture second place. My feeling going into Training camp?

New England
Buffalo
New York
Miami

Now, don't get me wrong, I think it could end up in a three way tie for second/third/last place. But if I had to put a number on it, I would do what I did above.

Buffalo has kept their offensive line in tact. Of course you could ask me, why the heck does that matter? True, they stunk last year, but they started to come together later in the season last year, their record may not have shown it, but their O-line was improving. Probably looking at an 8-8 second place finish and missing the playoffs.

But Miami is the biggest story today after this weekend. This retirement KILLS the Dolphins. I really don't know how they recover from this. Ricky Williams was probably the only reason Jay Fiedler had any success. All defenses will now key on Fiedler in the passing game, and they will get murdered. Not only that, but the Dolphin offensive line has been torn completely apart.

You should see the smile on my face as I write this.

Anyway, the Dolphin defense has never sent shivers down my spine. They are susceptible to everything. They seem to take chances; they get burnt deep; they aren't great against the run because they over-pursue with their speed.

The only good thing going for the Fish is they have favorable schedule. Unfortunately, so do the Pats, Bills and Jets.

DING DONG THE FISH ARE DEAD.

What a way to start training camp...!

A Line in the Offseason Sand

2004-07-11T21:58:00.000-04:00

Alright, I’m starting to feel it.

I’m starting to feel the first buzz of anticipation for that first FootballSunday in September. Only two months away now. Some of the pre-season rituals have already begun: the purchasing of the Sporting News football preview (a personal favorite); the scouring of teams’ schedules; and the reading of some of my football sites of choice.

As a general statement, my mind is on baseball right now, but that part of me that always looks ahead to the next season is starting to zero in on that second week of September.

One of the things I’m looking forward to the most right now is getting involved again in my friend’s weekly football pool, which I took a hiatus from last season. I’m not an expert at picking games by any stretch, nor am I even a dabbler of a gambler. As Dr. Z of Sports Illustrated wrote in a recent column, “And I like the action, too, although not as a player ... it would not be professional for me to be making bets week to week ... but I like to chart the ebb and flow and write about it as well."

And while keeping my $$$ firmly entrenched in my pockets, I too enjoy looking at, dissecting and picking games with point spreads. If football existed without these numbers, as it did during my formative years, the game wouldn’t lose a substantial amount of interest for me. However, I would miss the challenge of trying to break the oddsmakers’ code, game by game, week by week.

So, the order of football-related things I’m looking forward to:

1) That first FootballSunday morning. I guarantee you I’ll be up early, putting Mike Francesca’s football show on the radio, spending an inordinate amount of time making my picks for the pool, reading the Sunday sports section… It’s my own little Shangra-La.

2) The Jets (of course, or why would I be contributing to a Jets blog?), who will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1.

3) Opening Night: I’m still not crazy about this ESPN/Thursday night/First Game of the Season stuff, to be honest with you. It’s o.k., I guess… Last year I had a more vested interest because of the Jets’ game against the Redskins. This year, however, is such a solid match-up that unless I make a trip to Boston for this concert, I will be glued to the set for Pats/Colts in Foxboro.

4) The start of the football pool.

As I was putting this article together, my original reason #4 was the posting of Week 1 lines. Actually, Week 1 lines have already been posted despite the fact that training camps haven’t even opened yet. If that doesn’t prove that lines are based on public perception more than anything, I don’t know what does…

Besides the Week 1 lines, which seem a little silly to take too seriously at this point, there are a ton of other football odds that have been posted. Chances to win the Super Bowl, chances to win a division, etc., etc.

The only thing I can do now that comes close to any of those four options is take a look at the Over/Under lines for each team’s season. Projected season win totals for each team have been posted at various sportsbooks in Vegas, and Dr. Z, with some idle time that football fans can relate to at this time of year, did an excellent job dissecting on some of these pre-season figures in that aforementioned article.

The way these particular odds work is that each team is given a win total for the entire season. In the Jets case, it’s 9. The highest number is for the Patriots, Colts and Eagles (10.5). Then, as a bettor, you would either pick above or below that number, depending on how you think a particular team is going to perform over the course of a season.

What sportsbooks do to make picking these season win totals more difficult to pick then simply picking “over” or “under,” is they place a “vig” on the bet that varies from team to team. I’m going to let Dr. Z explain it, since he has a bit more experience writing about this than I do. From the the SI.com article:

They tell you (by posting season win over/under totals) which teams they think are going to be good, and which bad. It's a very pure way of forecasting. The way they do it is to give you an over and under price on what every team's final record will be. Most of the time the figure ends in a half, to cut down on pushes, such as Colts 10 1/2, which just so happens to be their season's number ... make that the early number put out by the Imperial Palace. It changes, house to house and week by week.

So if you think the Colts will win 11 or more regular-season games, you bet the over. If you think they won't, you bet the under. (This rather basic primer is provided for my four readers out there who don't quite understand sports betting.) But just to make it more interesting, there's another number involved. The vig, also known as the vigorish, or the bookies' edge, the juice.

Normally when you wager on a football game, a $100 bet will cost you $110 if you lose. That's the vig, 10 percent. But on these over-and-under bets on season records, the vigs are adjusted, sometimes in outlandish ways.

On the Vegas sheet you'll see a second set of numbers, the vigs, accompanying the number of wins. For instance, alongside the Colts' 10 1/2 you'll see +120 for the over, -150 for the under. What the oddsmakers are telling you is yeah, we'll give you a 10 1/2-win price to bet into, but we think the chances are much greater that Indy won't do that well. If you want to bet the under, you pay $150 if you lose, and collect $100 if you win. But if you go the other way and bet that they will have a really big year, we'll give you an edge and pay you $120 for your winning bet, whereas a losing wager will only cost you $100. That's how confident we are that the Colts won't come near matching last year's 12-4 record.

Since most of you visiting this site are probably Jets fans (but hopefully not adverse to football talk on the whole) the Jets number is 9, as I mentioned above. But it’s a “soft” 9. Based on Dr. Z’s explanation the oddsmakers are more in favor of the Jets finishing under that number than above it, and from my standpoint (I’m thinking 8-8 at this point), that certainly makes sense to me. To another Jets fan I know who’s thinking somewhere around 5-11 or 6-10, the Under probably looks like an absolute lock.

According to the late May posting at the Imperial Palace in Vegas (the lines Dr. Z referenced in his article), picking the Jets at over 9 wins is an even bet. Bet $100 to make $100. But by betting the under, you’re going to lose $130 to make $100. They’re enticing you to take the Over (if you lose that bet, you’re not losing as much), because they’re at least somewhat confident the Jets won’t be over 9.

I’m not going to post the season over/unders figures for every team (especially since they do vary so much between different oddsmakers), but here are the most profitable (and least profitable) bets according to the May 30 Imperial Palace lines. Keep in mind that the most profitable are the outcomes they think are least likely to happen.

Profitable/Least Profitable

*I don’t think I have to point this out, but I will anyway. There is a converse effect; if the Cowboys have the most profitable line (which they do), they also have the least profitable line.

+130/-160
Cowboys under 9

As Dr. Z noted in his article, and this figure shows (you have lay $160 just to bring home $100 if you take the over), Oddsmakers are very high on the Cowboys entering the second year of the Tuna regime

+120/-150
Colts over 10 1/2
Dolphins under 9
Bengals under 7 ½

+110/-140
Packers over 9 ½
Texans over 6 1/2

+105/-135
Eagles over 10 ½
Titans over 10
Bucs under 9
Giants over 6 ½
Chargers over 4 ½

+105/-105
Bears over 7

Even/-130
Rams over 9 ½
Jets over 9
Vikings under 8 ½
Jaguars under 7 ½

So looking at all possible outcomes (58 total for 29 teams - the only team that didn’t have a line posted is the 49ers b/c of their QB injury), the Jets finishing under 9-7 ranks in the top 16 in terms of likeliness of these outcomes, according to these particular lines.

As I noted above, these figures are now over a month old. For more up-to-date numbers I checked out Sportsbook.com.

Check these figures out, and how much some of them differ from the ones above:

Profitable/Least Profitable

+125/-155
Jaguars under 7.5
Minnesota under 8.5

+125 is the biggest profit margin on sportsbook.com right now. They, like the Imperial Palace, are indicating they believe Jacksonville is going to be at least 8-8, and Minnesota is going to win at least 9 games. The Cowboys who had the best bet/worst bet above, appear to have an even chance to be either over or under 9 (-115/-115).

+115/-145
Lions under 6.5
Giants under 6
Raiders under 7.5
Rams over 9.5

+110/-140
Browns over 7.5
Colts over 10.5
Bucs under 9

+105/-135
Bears under 6.5
Packers over 9.5
Jets over 9

Again, the oddsmakers are saying that they think the Jets are more likely to finish under 9 than over it. And they’re placing that likelihood in the top 12 of all 60 possible outcomes. The Niners are on the board on this sheet.

+100/-130
Bills under 7.5
Saints under 7.5
49ers under 5
Titans under 9.5

Some other odds before I wrap this thing up:

Odds to Win the Super Bowl
Kansas City Chiefs 17-1

St. Louis Rams 18-1

New England Patriots 7-1

Philadelphia Eagles 9-1

Indianapolis Colts 12-1

Tennessee Titans 20-1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22-1

Green Bay Packers 15-1

Denver Broncos 18-1

Miami Dolphins 20-1

Dallas Cowboys 22-1

Minnesota Vikings 20-1

Atlanta Falcons 22-1

Seattle Seahawks 20-1

New York Jets 25-1

New York Giants 45-1

Cincinnati Bengals 40-1

Baltimore Ravens 18-1

Buffalo Bills 45-1

New Orleans Saints 50-1

Pittsburgh Steelers 50-1

San Francisco 49ers 125-1

Carolina Panthers 20-1

Washington Redskins 20-1

Chicago Bears 45-1

Cleveland Browns 45-1

Jacksonville Jaguars 40-1

Oakland Raiders 35-1

San Diego Chargers 200-1

Houston Texans 70-1

Detroit Lions 50-1

Arizona Cardinals 125-1

Oh, and one last thing before I put all this odds-and-ends stuff to rest for a bit. The Jets are 4-point favorites against the Bengals in Week 1. I’ve also seen them listed as 4.5 point favorites in another spot.

I'd like to thank Mike for letting me contribute to the site. I currently have a baseball blog running here, so I'm not sure how often I'll be able to write about football. But I would like to look at some of these numbers again before the season starts. And I would also like to add more specific insights on the Jets. We'll see how it shakes out.

ESPN Season Preview

2004-07-08T16:48:00.000-04:00

ESPN did their AFC East season preview (or more specifically their off-season review) today. Click here to see the Jets off season review.

I will certainly have more to comment about the Jets offseason and the Jets roster in the next couple of weeks heading into Training Camp. But something in this ESPN article caught my eye. It was under the heading "What they're missing?", in the second of three sections of the article.

Under that sub-question ESPN's, or more specifically Mark Vanderberg's answer to that question was two fold. 1) A backup quarterback and 2) Special Teams playmakers. Key points, and I am not going to argue. However, we may wonder why he didn't include a linebacking Corps and a Secondary. Those are more important missing pieces that are on the field during half the football game. More like 3/4 of the game the way the Jets had been playing last year.

Mr. Vanderberg also stated the Jets "settled" on Justin McCareins instead of Owens, Keyshawn or a draft full of receivers. I will argue that the Jets used the draft to try to fill a bigger need: defense. No need to waste a first round pick on an easier to find quality wide receiver, when what you really needed was a hard to find fast athletic linebacker.

John Clayton in his piece asked the following question:

"Justin McCareins caught 47 passes last year, but can he become a 60 catch wide receiver?"

Maybe John can explain to us why ONLY 13 more catches in a season makes someone THAT MUCH more valuable. Let's remember, McCareins wasn't playing in a run and shoot offense last year. 47 catches on the Titans in your rookie season is a nice year. How many passes did Coles have in his first year? 22. In his second year? 59. Someone should tell John Clayton to take it easy on McCareins.

One last stat for John. McCareins yard per catch last year? 17.3. Coles since his rookie year hasn't gotten to 15 yards per catch.

Remembering the 1997 Football Season - 1st Quarter

2004-07-06T20:40:00.000-04:00

The 1997 New York Jets football season was a revival. If there were a movie about it, you would have water references and motifs all over the place. Even in a movie like that, the symbolism wouldn't be overdone. That is how much of a revival the season was.

Talking with fellow Jets fans during the dog days of summer, or during the football-less days of March, we agree on one major thing. The 1997 New York Jets season was one of the best we have ever seen. They didn't make the playoffs, there was a tough loss to end the season, and there were some bitter losses in the middle of the season; however there was no more fun a New York Jet fan could've had. The savior had arrived, and we just wanted to go along for the ride.

Bill Parcells was in town. His first game set the tone, and shocked an entire City.

It was Labor Day weekend during a hot summer. August 31st to be exact, and the first time in a long time the NFL season started in August. Prince Diana had died the night before. Don Mattingly was getting his number retired in the Bronx. So you could imagine why the Jets wouldn't be on the forefront of most New Yorkers minds.

Seattle had rebuilt their defense in the off-season and was expecting a large performance from the likes of Chad Brown. That didn't happen. The Jets scored on their first position and didn't look back. The Jets had a 27-3 lead going into halftime as the Yankee fans filing out of Yankee Stadium were wondering about the score. When hearing the halftime score, most Yankee fans thought it was a mistake. They couldn't believe what they were hearing.

Neil O'Donnell ended the game with 5 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. You couldn't have asked for a better game from a Quarterback only one season removed from a Super Bowl run, and coming off a disaster of a season (I won't remind you about the pain of 1996). Adrian Murrell had over 120 yards rushing. The Jets were finally developing a 1-2 punch. O'Donnell, Murrell, Chrebet, Keyshawn. Yet, Jet fans were remaining cautious. As well they should have.

One more interesting note about this game: Leon Johnson (as a rookie that season) was 0 for 1 in his first pass attempt of the year. I'm not kidding.

Week 2, in the Meadowlands, the past finally came back on the Jets. The Jets lost to the Bills, and they couldn;t stop the Buffalo offense. This was a sad sad reminder of the previous... What?? 6 years. Todd Collins was at QB, and even without Jim Kelly, he picked the Jets defense apart. Ted Washington had a huge game. He was a man that eventually in the off-season pushed Parcells to make an acquisition that would anchor the Jets for years to come.

The new and improved(?) Jets were 1-1.

That brings us to Week 3. One of the most amazing and fun football games that I have ever watched. One that brought pain. Pain that I never thought I would ever recover from.

A buddy and I were watching this game in my apartment in Storrs, Connecticut. Smoking cigarettes, drinking, yelling and screaming every minute of this game. Mo Lewis had a huge interception return for a touchdown. Parcells did his best coaching job by far getting ready for this game.

This was Parcells return to New England after a messy divorce in February of 1997. John Hall became a household name by a blowing a chance to win the game at the end of regulation. Keyshawn made himself big time by catching a 30 yard touchdown pass in the final minute to tie the game.

Jets finally blew it. 1-2. That apartment in Storrs probably still stinks of the cigarettes smoked that night.

The Jets had an ugly win in Week 4. Oakland Raiders. The coach was Joe Bugel. How bad could the Raiders have been? Jeff George was their starting quarterback for ALL 16 games. That HAD to be a record for that injury prone and whinny quarterback (if you could call him a quarterback). That's why the Raiders went 4-12 that season.

The Jets won a home game, actually got a little lucky. The winning score turned out to be a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. They ended the first quarter of the season at 2-2.

A record of 2-2 was all you could ask for to start a Parcells era.

2nd Quarter of the season coming soon...

Correction

2004-06-24T08:58:00.000-04:00

Thanks to an observant reader, and a fellow Jets Fan, I need to make a correction to yesterday's post.

The Jets were 6-10 in 1990. Still not impressive however, looking at their level of competition that year. They beat the following teams:

Cleveland Browns: This was Blair Thomas' first home football game in a Jets Uniform. Too bad it wasn't his last. Cleveland ended up the season in dead last place at 3-13.

New England Patriots: Marc Wilson at Quarterback and Rod Rust at coach. Do I need to say more?

Houston Oilers: This was a damn nice win in Houston that year. Fumble recovery in the end zone clinched the game in the second half.

Dallas Cowboys: A below average Cowboy team that year. Second year for Troy Aikman. Terance Mathis returned a kickoff for a touchdown in that game.

New England: I think my grandfathers dead uncle could've beaten the Patriots that year. Has to be one of the worst teams in history or at least in the 90's. Up there with the '96 Jets.

Tampa Bay: Bad team. Guess who was quarterback? And he was a VETERAN in 1990!!!! Talk about old.

1990 in the NFL wasn't like today. There were bad teams all over the place, and the unbalanced schedule was in high gear.

Joe Walton

2004-06-23T11:03:00.000-04:00

An interesting article today in the Pittsburg Post-Gazette. Click here to read it.

New York and Pittsburg are the two places where Joe Walton had the worst years of his professional life. It could be said that it was unfair the way he was treated. You look at the 1989 New York Jets and they had an aging fragile quarterback in Ken O'Brien, and a weak offensive line. What else could another coach get out of those players? Bruce Coslet only had a 4-12 season in the following 1990 season, with the same old Ken O'Brien at quarterback. Only after a couple of high draft picks did this team get a sniff of the playoffs in 1991 at 8-8 (I still want John Madden to shut up about that).

It is true the 1989 team quit on Walton, which is why his firing was so necessary. However, he may have been stricken with the greatest career killers of them all. Bubby Brister and Bad Luck.

Training Camp Date

2004-06-22T15:36:00.000-04:00

For those of you who are interested, the Jets open training camp on Thursday July 29th. This is later than normal. I remember in previous years the Jets and other teams would start as early as the 16th of July. However, this year the season doesn't start until the Sunday AFTER Labor Day. The NFL started to do that a couple years ago to try to boost the NFL ratings on the first weekend of the season.

Just so you know...

2004-06-21T15:58:00.000-04:00

I will write more on this issue, when I actually begin to have more than a passing interest. However, in case some of you are wondering, I'm still torn on the new football stadium issue.

On one hand, I hate playing at Giants Stadium. I hate playing at someone else's home. (Although, I think the issue of the Jets having NO HOME, has been overblown in the last 10 years). So I welcome the fact the Jets and this new ownership are taking things seriously and trying to find a new home. And I love the fact that it could be in New York City, and keeping those Big Blue idiots on the other side of the river.

But on the other hand...

The atmosphere could be different in that location. What happens to all the tailgaters if most people take a train or boat into the game? What happens to the tailgaters when people are parking in garages? The entire atmosphere is gone... That would be sad. The one thing the Jets don't need is a wine and cheese crowd, like the Giants have.

Into baseball? Check out this blog... Awesome writing

Jets Journal

2004-06-21T15:33:00.000-04:00

The New York Daily News reported yesterday that the New York Jets have put a hold on "Jets Journal" for the 2004 season. Jets Journal was a weekly, in season, half hour show dealing directly with the New York Football Jets. It had aired on MSG for the past (maybe) 15 years?

I grew up watching that show on my local cablevision in Northwest Connecticut. I used to religiously watch Al Trautwig and Dave Jennings make fun of the Jets, themselves and Joe Walton in order to make a watchable television show about a sad sad franchise. They did just that.

I used to watch Jets Journal on Saturday nights to get me more excited to go to the Jets game the next day with my father. Watching highlights of last week's loss, and a preview of this week's potential loss. Heck, I was a naive child!!!

Anyway, after growing up, I watched less and less Jets Journal. Only really watching it when I would have nothing better to do on a Friday or Saturday night or evening. But the memories of it will always be there. And more importantly, it was the only (Jets only) football show that I ever had the chance to watch. Being outside NYC I would never be able to see "Jets 24/7" and besides that show, Jets Journal was the only other option.

I wished the NYJ's had decided to sell this show to the YES network. I wish they had kept the show alive. For no other reason, than to keep my childhood watching Dave Jennings and Al Trautwig alive... (Marty Lyons came later...).

Torse

This is the Start

2004-06-16T17:04:00.000-04:00

This is the start of my blog. Nothing yet... but this will house my thoughts on my beloved New Your Jets, and other issues as I think of them. I will hopefully get this going more during football season. Thanks for dropping by, and hope to see you back here again soon...