Week 5 Picks

I'm currently in a picks pool, and for the past several weeks I've doing various write-ups on the NFL games. Use these recommendations at your own peril!

In my pool I have to pick a select number of games and put a weight on them. So for 25 games, I have to rank them 1-25; my 25-point game is the one I'm most confident with. My 1-point game is the one with the least amount of confidence.

I picked 10 college games yesterday. That means I have 15 NFL picks to choose. I can pick either ATS or Over/Under totals.

Anyway, these write-ups are just meant for fun, just a chance to analyze the match-ups. Enjoy the games.

Miami at New England (-13), Total: 34.5

This line is right about where it should be, and one with a 23-10 final in mind. The Dolphins haven’t given up 20 points, but that doesn’t mean they won’t in their toughest spot, against the toughest opponent they’ve played so far. And certainly vs. the best offense they’ve played to this point.

Against a Top 10 defense (Buffalo), the Pats racked up 31 points, and nearly 400 total yards.

How much longer can the Miami defense keep the weight of the team (and any shred of respectability) solely on its back? In one of these games the dam is going to break, and they won’t lose 17-9; they’ll lose by a more ugly-looking margin. This could be the week.

No team protects their QB better than the Patriots, and it’s likely they will be able to put some points on the board.

While the Pats’ pass defense is excellent (YPG and sack numbers are both very good), the run defense is not. The best way to move the ball is stay away from throwing into Belichek’s defensive backfield and just try to smash into their defensive line. However, there is nothing the Dolphins have shown that would lead anyone to believe they’re going to run the ball vs. New England.

The Dolphins’ offense has been putrid, and while the QB situation is a mess (Jay Fiedler, once a decent QB, now looks as if he forgot how to play football), the running game has been even worse. YPG: 59.8, YPR: 2.7 – both figures are last in the NFL.

I’m going to stay away from the 13-point line. In a game that will probably be decided by the 3rd quarter, it’s begging for a late score to swing it one way or the other.

What I am considering is the total: a tiny 34.5, the 2nd lowest total of the week. Last year, in the two NE/Miami games, the Under was the play both times: In October, the total was 32 on a 37 point line; In December, the total was 12 (a 12-0 NE shutout) on a 33.5 point line.

A couple of my reasons for this: 1) I have the idea in my head that if Miami continues to play offense like they’re playing underwater, the defense is going to lose interest in the 2nd half of one of these games 2) New England’s offense looks damn efficient right now. They sliced their way through a good Buffalo defense last week.

Then again, this game could be staring 20-3 right in the face… Final decision: No play

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-6) Total: 37

Pittsburgh is a solid home favorite vs. the Browns. Don’t really know much about these two teams at this point. Browns struggle to score 20 points against decent defenses (Dallas, New York and Washington), but they’ve only really had one terrible outing (in New York) where a game really got away from them.

Is Pittsburgh good enough for this line? They’ve really played garbage teams the past two weeks, which might be inflating the line a tad. And it looks like they play to the range of their competition. The Miami game (on a post-hurricane field) played to form, as did the Cincy game last week.

If this was to play to form, I’d expect about 13-17 points for the Browns and 19-21 points for Pittsburgh.

I don’t see much of a reason to play with the six points, but the Over might be a play. I don’t see anything vaunted about the Steelers defense (I think it’s more of a reflection of the QBs they’ve played against) that makes me think that Cleveland will move the ball at least a little bit…

Tough call… Final decision: No play

Oakland at Indianapolis (-9.5) Total: 52.5

This line looks a bit high at 9.5. The Colts certainly have it in them to soar past 30 in this game and could win by a couple of touchdowns. But there might be some value in picking Oakland off a loss to Houston, and a bad performance by Kerry Collins.

I have little doubt in my mind that Oakland is going to score points. I have also little doubt that Indy is going to score points as well. The total is the highest of the week: 52.5, and this could sail past that robust amount.

If the Raiders score 24-27, can they keep the Colts in the 32-35 range? Maybe…

I think the Raiders getting 9.5 is a pretty good play. I’m going to bank that Collins will be able to throw the ball at will against that suspect Indy secondary, and keep his team within 10 points. The total is so high, that I’m a little wary of going with it. If I had to pick, I’d take the Over.

Final decision: Oakland +9.5, my 3 point game

Detroit at Atlanta (-6.5) Total: 41

That win in Carolina really swung public opinion back in the Falcons’ favor. They are easily pacing the league in rushing yards/game (174) with Warrick Dunn avg. over 4 yds/carry and the ever-present prospect of Vick on the loose. Even T.J. Duckett has pitched in with 121 yards.

The good news for the Lions is that they’ve fared well against the run (less than 100 ypg) in the early going.

The bad news is that Atlanta’s defense has been excellent, albeit against a couple of offensively challenged teams of late (Arizona and Carolina). Detroit’s offensive rankings are near the bottom of the league; Atlanta’s defense (12 ppg) is right at the top. And they’ve accumulated a bunch of sacks (16) as well.

I just don’t see that there’s going to be a lot points in this one, and yet the total (41) is only one of five games that are +40 on the point total.

In a game that I think both teams are going to struggle to get to 20, 6.5 is a decent size spread. I’ll probably stay away from it, but would lean towards the Lions coming off a bye with a good coach.

Final decision: Lions +6.5 is my 1 point game. The Under is my 15-point pick (higest of my NFL picks today)

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3)

Alright, which way are we going to go with the Saints this week? They lost the first two games of the season ATS as home favorites, including one game as big favorites against the 49ers. They came back as road dogs and covered vs. the Rams. And then predictably didn’t cover as a road favorite in Arizona…

They’re home against the beleaguered Bucs with an invitingly low line of -3.

Tampa can play the pass (4th in passing yards against), but they can’t play the run anymore. They allow 126.5/g, which is partly a reflection that teams have been playing with leads against them in the 2nd half, but also a reflection that the defense isn’t what it once was.

I think the fact they played the Broncos tough at home probably swung the line back down a bit. But the Broncos aren’t any great shakes either offensively…

Although trying to stay with the Saints is like trying to hold onto the back end of a roller coaster, I’m going to pick their game for the 4th week in a row. I think they’ll score some points (at least 21), and although the Saints defense is not good (26.8 ppg), the Bucs offense led by Chris Simms won’t be lighting up the scoreboard.

I’m going to stay away from the total, but would lean to the over.

Final decision: Saints -3, my 5 point game

New York Giants at Dallas (-3.5) Total: 37.5

The Giants and Cowboys have played a relatively similar schedule. Both teams opened with brutal road games (at Minny, at Philly) and didn’t fare well.

And they’ve both played the Browns and Redskins. The Giants have one extra game b/c of Dallas’ bye last week.

B/c of the similarities, a statistical comparison is probably a little more helpful here than for other match-ups with big schedule disparities.

Rushing Offense (YPR/YPG)
New York: 5.03/148.2
Dallas: 3.53/82.3

Passing Offense (YPG/QB Rating)
New York: 222.5/88.47
Dallas: 3.53/83.41

Rushing Defense (YPR/YPG)
New York: 4.68/113.5
Dallas: 4.69/122

Passing Defense (YPG/QB Rating/Sacks)
New York: 227/79.06/10
Dallas: 211.7/86.07/8

Turnover Ratio
New York: +10
Dallas: -3

Okay, what’s the first thing you think about when I say “Giants/Cowboys” and then say “Coughlin/Parcells?” Well, I don’t know about you but I think about defense, defense, defense. Except, look at these numbers… Neither team is a defensive powerhouse, and consider that four of the seven games these teams have played have been against offensively-challenged Cleveland and Washington.

Looking at these numbers (and remembering that Vinny Testaverde will take a sack every now and then, not to mention throw a pick), I don’t see much of a reason not to take the Giants and the points. Of course, I smell a trap here… Or maybe that it’s just Dallas is at home, and people aren’t sold on the Giants yet.

Either way, I’ll take the points in this rivalry game.

The total is a tough call. Right on the money at 37.5. I’d probably take the Under, but with not a lot of confidence.

Final decision: Giants +3.5, my 8 point pick

Minnesota (-4) at Houston

I sense a lot of people are going to jump on the Texans' bandwagon this week, and pick them as a home dog after covering easily against the Raiders last week, and winning as huge road dogs at Kansas City the week before.

One thing you can bank on, Houston is going to score some points against that Minnesota D. As I wrote last week, Houston’s offensive output has been consistent all season long: 20-16-24-30. They had one slip up on the road in Detroit, but other than that they look to be a lock for about 21 points/game. I would imagine they’re going to hit at least 24 at home against that defense. *I should mention that Minnesota’s poor defensive rankings (their PTS allowed total is middle of the pack), is due to their bad pass defense numbers (30th in the league in passing yards allowed/game). Their run defense is Top 10 in the league.

But how many are they going to give up? Houston’s pass defense (198.5 ypg) isn’t a huge problem, but their run defense is. Ranked 25th at 133.8 ypg. Keep in mind they’ve had to go against Tomlinson and Holmes already, but that’s a pretty hearty total. Minnesota’s rushing numbers, while not as good as their passing numbers, are still very good. They’re at 100+ ypg and run at 4.32 y/r.

50 is the point total for this game, and it’s certainly justified. For the Vikes to cover the four, I suspect they’re going to have to hit at least 29. The problem is that the Texans points allowed are on a steady decline since week 1: 27-28-21-17. And those last two numbers are against good offensive teams (Kansas City and Oakland).

The play here is Houston. For Minnesota to cover with 25, they’d have to hold the Texans to 20. 1) I don’t think it’s a lock that Minnesota will score high 20s in this spot and 2) I’m not convinced that the Texans will be held down at 20 or 21. They might reach 24-27 against that defense.

Final decision: Texans +4, my 4 point pick

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-6.5) Total: 37

Here are the Bills’ point totals for their first three games: 13, 13, 17 – against two very good defenses, and one average defense.

The Jets are a still an average defense (but getting better), and are allowing 20+ ppg. My guess is that today is the first week the Bills crack 20. The problem is, I think the Jets will sail past 20 as well.

All week I was on this game, thinking the Bills + the points. However, now that it’s down to 6.5 and seeing how banged up the Bills are, especially in the secondary, I’m hedging my bet on this one.

The desperate Bills playing a division game, Mularky still looking for win #1 might be a light play. Jets are 3-0 ATS; Bills are 0-3.

I do like the Over.

Final decision: Over 37, my 14 point pick

Jacksonville (-3) @ San Diego

My initial lean tells me Jacksonville. The Jags are a sharp 3-1 ATS against some good competition, but they have been Dogs in every game. This is their first spot as a favorite, and it’s on the road to boot.

Their pass defense rankings are very good, but surprisingly, their rushing defense numbers are just average (16th in ypg).

I don’t mind taking the Jags in this spot (I’m still not much of a believer in San Diego), but what’s the point in pushing on 3, which is what I think could easily happen.

I’ll take my chances and would rather play the Under. San Diego will be able to run a little, but not pass. Jacksonville could pass if it had a better passing game…

Final decision: Under 36.5, my 7 point pick; Jacksonville -3 is my 2 point pick

Carolina at Denver (-5.5), Total: 37.5

I’m a little worried about Carolina’s D in this spot. But in the area where they’ve really struggled (rush defense), I’m not sure Denver will be able to take advantage with Griffin injured. Plummer doesn’t figure to do much against a pass defense that is allowing opposing QBs a 73.42 rating (and that includes games against Favre, Green and Vick).

On the other side of the ball, I’m not expecting much from the Carolina offense. Denver’s defense has played very well, having allowed only 20 points once in a game (opening week to the Chiefs).

Carolina has to shoot for 16 and hope for the best. Denver probably will do just enough to win. The Under is a pretty good play, as is taking Carolina plus the points.

Final decision: Carolina +5.5, my 11 point pick; the Under is my 10 point pick

St. Louis @ Seattle (-7)

Seattle is now getting big lines in its favor, as they have surged to the top of the heap in the NFL. Their point differential is jaw-dropping as they’re scoring 21.7 and allowing a miniscule 4.3 ppg. Their opponents have been New Orleans, Tampa and San Francisco, but still… 4 points a game are 4 points a game.

The rushing numbers against are best in the league, and opposing QBs have by far the lowest rating against Seattle.

Will St. Louis be able to make any dent in that D, off an extra week of rest?

The Rams are no longer the Greatest Show on Turf, but they still have a good offense. They can still run, and their QB rating is still +90; they score 20.8/g.

I’m not convinced they’ll be able to do much against this defense, however. And with Seattle likely to sail past 20 points in this one, I don’t mind laying the seven. A light play, but I’d go with the home team in this one.

Final decision: Seattle -7, my 6 point game

Arizona at San Francisco (-1) Total: 37

Ooooh… this is an ugly one. Both offenses are terrible; both teams score right around 15 ppg. QB ratings are almost identical (low 70s).

When looking at the statistical comparisons between these two, one number jumps up and down off the page and waves its hands: San Francisco is allowing opposing QBs a 106.47 rating. That is colossally bad. (The next worst team is Green Bay at 102).

I don’t see any convincing reason to take the 49ers in this spot. They showed some spunk early in the season, covering as Dogs against Atlanta and New Oreleans. But they didn’t come close in Seattle as double-digit Dogs, and they were lackluster against the mediocre Rams at home in primetime.

Arizona is still floating under the radar a bit, and I’ll take them to win this one outright. The play is Under 37.

Final decision: Under 37, my 12 point pick; Cards +1, my 9 point pick

Baltimore at Washington (Pick 'em)

Just when you thought the ugly games were over for the week, this gem comes rolling down the pike.

The Redskins have been a mess offensively. Defensively, they’ve been fine. The only game they allowed more than 20 was against the Giants, a game in which they turned the ball over seven times.

I like the Ravens in this spot. They’re coming off a home MNF loss in which they were huge favorites (always affects the line), and they could fall two behind Pittsburgh with a loss here in the early going. I like Billick over Gibbs right now in the coaching department as well.

I usually don’t like relying on transient things like “motivation” and “emotion” in picking football games, but I’m going to use some of those things in picking the Ravens. With the impending loss of Lewis for a couple games, they need this win. And I have a feeling they’re not going to be in the best of moods… The total is the lowest of the week… If either team hits 20, you probably push… I’ll stay away from that number.

Final decision: Ravens, my 13 point pick

Tennessee at Green Bay (-3)

What do you do with this game? Both teams struggling, trying to regain their footing, coming off three losses in a row since opening week wins. What team finds its way back into the season? Which one falls off into 1-4 oblivion?

Both defenses have been disappointments. They both are allowing a bunch of rushing yards, an equal amount actually: 131 ypg. And Tennessee’s defense is marginally better than Green Bay’s, which has been awful.

I give Fisher a huge coaching edge over Sherman, but I thought that the Titans would be well-prepped to win in San Diego last week, and that didn’t come close to happening.

My play would be Tennessee + points. But I’m not touching the line or the total. This might be the toughest game to call of the year so far…

Final decision: No play

Recap

15: Detroit/Atlanta Under
14: Jets/Bills Over
13: Baltimore Ravens
12: Cardinals/49ers Under
11: Carolina Panthers +5.5
10: Broncos/Panthers Under
9: Arizona Cardinals +1
8: New York Giants +3.5
7: Jacksonville/San Diego Under
6: Seattle -7
5: New Orleans -3
4: Houston +4
3: Oakland +9.5
2: Jacksonville -3
1: Detroit Lions +6.5

The last two weeks, I'm 15-11-2 in my NFL pix. Let's see how this week shakes out.

-- Joe