First Day of Practice

Today is the first day of practice, and there was a few items of interest in the papers this morning, but nothing big.

The rest of the Jets draft picks were signed yesterday, including Jerricho Cotchery.  Meanwhile, I learned that Cotchery has had a hamstring problem in the last few weeks and maybe slowed a little in the first few practices.  Not a good start for my favorite late round pick.

I wrote yesterday about Herman Edwards changing personality.  He responded to this yesterday in his press conference:

"The big buzz is that I've changed. Well, you're wrong, I haven't changed at all.  I'm a little bit more detailed and a little bit more matter-of-fact, but my personality, my passion for football, hasn't changed a bit....If you expect me to starting running around, hollering and cussing and scolding players in the newspapers, I'm not going to do that."

I'm going to stop making a big deal out of this.  Herman can change all he wants, as long as he makes a run at a playoff spot this year, I'll be happy.  With the Dolphins in a state of shambles, that expectation is certainly be more likely than a week ago.

All the talk this morning around the paper scene is of Chad Pennington's contract and Wayne Chrebet.  Chad and the team has set a September 1st deadline for getting a deal done.  If it isn't worked out by then, talks will be tabled until the end of the season.  I'm not worried, it will get done before or after the season.  Chad isn't going anywhere.

As for Chrebet, he is insisting that he will start training camp at 100%, and will play that way.  This is opposed to the reports yesterday that he will not overwork himself and "end his career" in training camp.

The Start

Today is the start of training camp.  Players report and two-a-days start tomorrow.  A time for optimism and a time for new hope.  A time to realize this hot summer will finally be over soon (hot in this part of the US at least).

Football is upon us, and finally I can stop constantly praying that George Bush loses in November.  I just wish the Jets will not be losing much in November.

Let's get started:

Wayne Chrebet and (what a shock) John Abraham may be limited during most, if not all, of two a days during this training camp.  Chrebet is coming off very bad concussion problems and Abraham off groin surgery.  (Let's hope that surgery didn't involve an implant).  Anyway, Chrebet is telling everyone that he is healthy but "doesn't want to end his career on the practice field".  If he believes he is that close to losing his career, than maybe Wayne should think about calling it a career.  But I don't want to get in the habit of telling players when and when not to retire.

Brooks Bollinger and Ricky Ray will start training camp as Pennington's backup.  Those two have names that sound like they should be in a boy band somewhere.  Remember 1999, Parcells took a big gamble going into the season without a capable backup, and it hurt the team in the long run.  If you don't learn from history, you are destined to repeat it.

My favorite pick, Jerricho Cotchery, is getting ready to report to camp.  I will try to update you on his progress this training camp.  I'm optimistic that he can make the team and contribute.

I'm always skeptical of coaches that change their demeanor or way of doing things in the middle of their run with a team.  It screams to me as desperation sometimes.  This is from Rich Cimini today:

According to several players, Edwards is more business-like than ever, showing a more authoritative side. They expect a more intense camp than the previous three, if not a more physically demanding one. "This," Edwards said, "will be the best camp we've had competition-wise."

Future Free Agents

Rich Cimini today in his article, listed the free agents the Jets need to concentrate on during training camp to prevent them from becoming restricted or unrestricted free agents after this season.  Let's review them one by one, in order of importance:

1. Chad Pennington.  How can you put your franchise quarterback anywhere but on the top of this list?  Critics may argue that he had only one full great season, and that his injury prone season last year can not be used to judge his future quarterback potential.  They will also point to his weak arm.  I can't buy the critics arguments.  This team hasn't had a franchise type quarterback in decades.  The worst thing this front office needs is to have a mess on their hands next offseason because Chad isn't under contract yet.  He needs to be first, and then move on from there.
2. Shaun Ellis.  Last year was really Shaun's breakout year.  He has been hampered by his inexperience and mistakes by the coaching staff trying to turn him into something that he was not - a tackle.  He excelled last year at his end position opposite John Abraham.  The most important thing is that he is not as injury prone as Abraham.
3. Jason Ferguson.  I had a hard time picking between Ellis and Ferguson for #2 and #3.  I can end up calling Ferguson 2a.  However, I put Ellis ahead because of one major problem with Ferguson's game.  He didn't help the Jets stop the run last year.  In 2002, the Jets missed Ferguson desperately and finally started to settle down without him.  After his return in 2003, he was supposed to solidify a defensive line that the Jets touted as scary to opponents.  It turns out the entire defense was scary to the fans.  However, linebackers and secondary was the major problem.  Fergy was solid with a bad supporting cast last year.  He obviously couldn't do it on his own, but he will be needed in the future.
4. Kareem McKenzie.  I don't think the Jets will sign him.  He is a solid offensive lineman, and I would argue that they really NEED to sign him, but some team out there will overpay for him.  Teams do that, and other desperate things, when they need O-line help.  Proof?  Teams actually signed Jeff Criswell and Jeff Cadigan after they left the Jets.  If that isn't desperate, I don't know what is.  McKenzie, is unfortunately, probably gone.
5. John Abraham.  The Jets should have traded him for T. Owens last year.  This year I hope they trade him for a slice of pizza.  Injury prone and a whiner.  Get the heck out of here.  (Of course, I'm hoping that I will be able to eat my words.)
6. LaMont Jordon.  Give the kid a break, let him go somewhere else and play.  Trade him for something.  Curtis Martin can still run with the football, and it's not difficult to find quality backup running backs.  Look at Denver.  They cultivate running backs in their back yard.  (By the way, I think the Redskins made an awful trade in the offseason.  Daniel Snyder can suck my....  John Hall.)
7. Anthony Becht.  Get out.  I will pay you out of my own pocket if you would just leave.

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Interesting structure  to the Vilma contract.  According to the NY Daily News there was NO signing bonus, but a $1.2 Million "reporting bonus", and a $6 Million option bonus in 2005, which he would certainly collect.  As I said, the Jets know the salary cap very well, and this must have been done for a reason.  Possibly also to save Woody Johnson some money upfront to pay to Pennington and others (see above) in the form of a signing bonus.

Joe/WFAN/Vilma

My fellow contributor to this blog (Joe) is reporting that WFAN in New York is reporting that the New York Jets have signed Jonathan Vilma today.  I don't know when it will be officially announced or even more widely reported, but I will take this opportunity to give a hats off to this front office.  They may be inept in free agency, but they really know their numbers and the salary cap.

Vilma was the 12th pick in this year's NFL draft out of the University of Miami.  He is reported to be 6-1, 230 pounds, and very very quick.  Undersized doesn't bother me, but I'm really happy that he is reported to be fast.  That was the major downfall of the Jets last year; lack of team speed.

Update:

See story on this signing.

Vilma

The Jets head into training camp this week and the minds of the front office employees should be on one thing.  Signing Jonathan Vilma.  This front office has a history of only a few things.  First of losing high caliber free agents.  They definitely have lived up to that in this off season.  Secondly, they have a history of avoiding holdouts from their first round picks.  That is what's important currently.

Sign Vilma, bring him in to camp, and let him learn learn learn learn, grow grow grow grow and develop develop develop develop.

That's the top priority.

 

Herm's Quote Bag

Here's a quote from Herman Edwards in today's Journal News (Westchester County Newspaper):

"Sam is going in as the starter,'' said Jets coach Herman Edwards, leaving open the idea that the matter isn't settled. "What's great about our linebacking situation is we've gotten better. At the end of the year, we had to upgrade. We did, and now we've got to get them running in the same direction.''

Nice to know that the goal going into camp is for the linebackers to "run in the same direction".  This obviously wasn't emphasized as a goal last year.

He is of course, talking about Sam Cowart who the coaches are moving inside to middle linebacker and letting him compete for the starting job.  As a formality, he was already named the starter, but I can't imagine they won't give the young Vilma a chance at middle in addition to weak side.  Sam is the only holdover of the old feeble linebackers the Jets had last year.

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NFL Network replayed two Jets games yesterday on "NFL Replay".  If you don't know what this show is, they replay well played games from the last 5-7 years in a two hour quick format.  Halftime and some in between play time is cut out, but every play in the game is shown.

What makes this better than the older NFL Films "Greatest Games Ever" format, is the feed on this game is the network feed with the network announcers.  It is like watching an actual football game, but it moves faster and has less commercials.  It's fun to look back on some games you have forgotten about, and watch it unfold, and hear what the announcers had to say.

Yesterday's action on the NFL network included Jets/Patriots opening day 1999.  Vinny getting injured.  Fortunately, I had plans and didn't watch that.  Additionally they had opening day 1998 Jets/49ers.  I DID watch the second half of that game.  What a shoot out that turned out to be.  Glenn Foley.  Where are you now?  I flashed back to watching that game in my parents basement with friends, and being so upset afterward.  If only I knew what was about to come later on in that magical season...

 

 

A Shake Up

A shake up in the AFC east just days before the Jets and the rest of the league opens training camp.  By shake up, I mean, the honor of finishing in second place this year could be up for grabs.  All three teams (Miami, Buffalo and the Jets) have a chance to capture second place.  My feeling going into Training camp?

1. New England
2. Buffalo
3. New York
4. Miami

Now, don't get me wrong, I think it could end up in a three way tie for second/third/last place.  But if I had to put a number on it, I would do what I did above. 

Buffalo has kept their offensive line in tact.  Of course you could ask me, why the heck does that matter?  True, they stunk last year, but they started to come together later in the season last year, their record may not have shown it, but their O-line was improving.  Probably looking at an 8-8 second place finish and missing the playoffs.

But Miami is the biggest story today after this weekend.  This retirement KILLS the Dolphins.  I really don't know how they recover from this.  Ricky Williams was probably the only reason Jay Fiedler had any success.  All defenses will now key on Fiedler in the passing game, and they will get murdered.  Not only that, but the Dolphin offensive line has been torn completely apart.

You should see the smile on my face as I write this.

Anyway, the Dolphin defense has never sent shivers down my spine.  They are susceptible to everything.  They seem to take chances; they get burnt deep; they aren't great against the run because they over-pursue with their speed.

The only good thing going for the Fish is they have favorable schedule.  Unfortunately, so do the Pats, Bills and Jets. 

DING DONG THE FISH ARE DEAD.

What a way to start training camp...!

 

A Line in the Offseason Sand

Alright, I’m starting to feel it.

I’m starting to feel the first buzz of anticipation for that first FootballSunday in September. Only two months away now. Some of the pre-season rituals have already begun: the purchasing of the Sporting News football preview (a personal favorite); the scouring of teams’ schedules; and the reading of some of my football sites of choice.

As a general statement, my mind is on baseball right now, but that part of me that always looks ahead to the next season is starting to zero in on that second week of September.

One of the things I’m looking forward to the most right now is getting involved again in my friend’s weekly football pool, which I took a hiatus from last season. I’m not an expert at picking games by any stretch, nor am I even a dabbler of a gambler. As Dr. Z of Sports Illustrated wrote in a recent column, “And I like the action, too, although not as a player ... it would not be professional for me to be making bets week to week ... but I like to chart the ebb and flow and write about it as well."

And while keeping my $$$ firmly entrenched in my pockets, I too enjoy looking at, dissecting and picking games with point spreads. If football existed without these numbers, as it did during my formative years, the game wouldn’t lose a substantial amount of interest for me. However, I would miss the challenge of trying to break the oddsmakers’ code, game by game, week by week.

So, the order of football-related things I’m looking forward to:

1) That first FootballSunday morning. I guarantee you I’ll be up early, putting Mike Francesca’s football show on the radio, spending an inordinate amount of time making my picks for the pool, reading the Sunday sports section… It’s my own little Shangra-La.

2) The Jets (of course, or why would I be contributing to a Jets blog?), who will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1.

3) Opening Night: I’m still not crazy about this ESPN/Thursday night/First Game of the Season stuff, to be honest with you. It’s o.k., I guess… Last year I had a more vested interest because of the Jets’ game against the Redskins. This year, however, is such a solid match-up that unless I make a trip to Boston for this concert, I will be glued to the set for Pats/Colts in Foxboro.

4) The start of the football pool.

As I was putting this article together, my original reason #4 was the posting of Week 1 lines. Actually, Week 1 lines have already been posted despite the fact that training camps haven’t even opened yet. If that doesn’t prove that lines are based on public perception more than anything, I don’t know what does…

Besides the Week 1 lines, which seem a little silly to take too seriously at this point, there are a ton of other football odds that have been posted. Chances to win the Super Bowl, chances to win a division, etc., etc.

The only thing I can do now that comes close to any of those four options is take a look at the Over/Under lines for each team’s season. Projected season win totals for each team have been posted at various sportsbooks in Vegas, and Dr. Z, with some idle time that football fans can relate to at this time of year, did an excellent job dissecting on some of these pre-season figures in that aforementioned article.

The way these particular odds work is that each team is given a win total for the entire season. In the Jets case, it’s 9. The highest number is for the Patriots, Colts and Eagles (10.5). Then, as a bettor, you would either pick above or below that number, depending on how you think a particular team is going to perform over the course of a season.

What sportsbooks do to make picking these season win totals more difficult to pick then simply picking “over” or “under,” is they place a “vig” on the bet that varies from team to team. I’m going to let Dr. Z explain it, since he has a bit more experience writing about this than I do. From the the SI.com article:

They tell you (by posting season win over/under totals) which teams they think are going to be good, and which bad. It's a very pure way of forecasting. The way they do it is to give you an over and under price on what every team's final record will be. Most of the time the figure ends in a half, to cut down on pushes, such as Colts 10 1/2, which just so happens to be their season's number ... make that the early number put out by the Imperial Palace. It changes, house to house and week by week.

So if you think the Colts will win 11 or more regular-season games, you bet the over. If you think they won't, you bet the under. (This rather basic primer is provided for my four readers out there who don't quite understand sports betting.) But just to make it more interesting, there's another number involved. The vig, also known as the vigorish, or the bookies' edge, the juice.

Normally when you wager on a football game, a $100 bet will cost you $110 if you lose. That's the vig, 10 percent. But on these over-and-under bets on season records, the vigs are adjusted, sometimes in outlandish ways.

On the Vegas sheet you'll see a second set of numbers, the vigs, accompanying the number of wins. For instance, alongside the Colts' 10 1/2 you'll see +120 for the over, -150 for the under. What the oddsmakers are telling you is yeah, we'll give you a 10 1/2-win price to bet into, but we think the chances are much greater that Indy won't do that well. If you want to bet the under, you pay $150 if you lose, and collect $100 if you win. But if you go the other way and bet that they will have a really big year, we'll give you an edge and pay you $120 for your winning bet, whereas a losing wager will only cost you $100. That's how confident we are that the Colts won't come near matching last year's 12-4 record.

Since most of you visiting this site are probably Jets fans (but hopefully not adverse to football talk on the whole) the Jets number is 9, as I mentioned above. But it’s a “soft” 9. Based on Dr. Z’s explanation the oddsmakers are more in favor of the Jets finishing under that number than above it, and from my standpoint (I’m thinking 8-8 at this point), that certainly makes sense to me. To another Jets fan I know who’s thinking somewhere around 5-11 or 6-10, the Under probably looks like an absolute lock.

According to the late May posting at the Imperial Palace in Vegas (the lines Dr. Z referenced in his article), picking the Jets at over 9 wins is an even bet. Bet $100 to make $100. But by betting the under, you’re going to lose $130 to make $100. They’re enticing you to take the Over (if you lose that bet, you’re not losing as much), because they’re at least somewhat confident the Jets won’t be over 9.

I’m not going to post the season over/unders figures for every team (especially since they do vary so much between different oddsmakers), but here are the most profitable (and least profitable) bets according to the May 30 Imperial Palace lines. Keep in mind that the most profitable are the outcomes they think are least likely to happen.

Profitable/Least Profitable

*I don’t think I have to point this out, but I will anyway. There is a converse effect; if the Cowboys have the most profitable line (which they do), they also have the least profitable line.

+130/-160
Cowboys under 9

As Dr. Z noted in his article, and this figure shows (you have lay $160 just to bring home $100 if you take the over), Oddsmakers are very high on the Cowboys entering the second year of the Tuna regime

+120/-150
Colts over 10 1/2
Dolphins under 9
Bengals under 7 ½

+110/-140
Packers over 9 ½
Texans over 6 1/2

+105/-135
Eagles over 10 ½
Titans over 10
Bucs under 9
Giants over 6 ½
Chargers over 4 ½

+105/-105
Bears over 7

Even/-130
Rams over 9 ½
Jets over 9
Vikings under 8 ½
Jaguars under 7 ½

So looking at all possible outcomes (58 total for 29 teams - the only team that didn’t have a line posted is the 49ers b/c of their QB injury), the Jets finishing under 9-7 ranks in the top 16 in terms of likeliness of these outcomes, according to these particular lines.

As I noted above, these figures are now over a month old. For more up-to-date numbers I checked out Sportsbook.com.

Check these figures out, and how much some of them differ from the ones above:

Profitable/Least Profitable

+125/-155
Jaguars under 7.5
Minnesota under 8.5

+125 is the biggest profit margin on sportsbook.com right now. They, like the Imperial Palace, are indicating they believe Jacksonville is going to be at least 8-8, and Minnesota is going to win at least 9 games. The Cowboys who had the best bet/worst bet above, appear to have an even chance to be either over or under 9 (-115/-115).

+115/-145
Lions under 6.5
Giants under 6
Raiders under 7.5
Rams over 9.5

+110/-140
Browns over 7.5
Colts over 10.5
Bucs under 9

+105/-135
Bears under 6.5
Packers over 9.5
Jets over 9

Again, the oddsmakers are saying that they think the Jets are more likely to finish under 9 than over it. And they’re placing that likelihood in the top 12 of all 60 possible outcomes. The Niners are on the board on this sheet.

+100/-130
Bills under 7.5
Saints under 7.5
49ers under 5
Titans under 9.5


Some other odds before I wrap this thing up:

Odds to Win the Super Bowl
Kansas City Chiefs 17-1

St. Louis Rams 18-1

New England Patriots 7-1

Philadelphia Eagles 9-1

Indianapolis Colts 12-1

Tennessee Titans 20-1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22-1

Green Bay Packers 15-1

Denver Broncos 18-1

Miami Dolphins 20-1

Dallas Cowboys 22-1

Minnesota Vikings 20-1

Atlanta Falcons 22-1

Seattle Seahawks 20-1

New York Jets 25-1

New York Giants 45-1

Cincinnati Bengals 40-1

Baltimore Ravens 18-1

Buffalo Bills 45-1

New Orleans Saints 50-1

Pittsburgh Steelers 50-1

San Francisco 49ers 125-1

Carolina Panthers 20-1

Washington Redskins 20-1

Chicago Bears 45-1

Cleveland Browns 45-1

Jacksonville Jaguars 40-1

Oakland Raiders 35-1

San Diego Chargers 200-1

Houston Texans 70-1

Detroit Lions 50-1

Arizona Cardinals 125-1

Oh, and one last thing before I put all this odds-and-ends stuff to rest for a bit. The Jets are 4-point favorites against the Bengals in Week 1. I’ve also seen them listed as 4.5 point favorites in another spot.

I'd like to thank Mike for letting me contribute to the site. I currently have a baseball blog running here, so I'm not sure how often I'll be able to write about football. But I would like to look at some of these numbers again before the season starts. And I would also like to add more specific insights on the Jets. We'll see how it shakes out.

ESPN Season Preview

ESPN did their AFC East season preview (or more specifically their off-season review) today. Click here to see the Jets off season review.

I will certainly have more to comment about the Jets offseason and the Jets roster in the next couple of weeks heading into Training Camp. But something in this ESPN article caught my eye. It was under the heading "What they're missing?", in the second of three sections of the article.

Under that sub-question ESPN's, or more specifically Mark Vanderberg's answer to that question was two fold. 1) A backup quarterback and 2) Special Teams playmakers. Key points, and I am not going to argue. However, we may wonder why he didn't include a linebacking Corps and a Secondary. Those are more important missing pieces that are on the field during half the football game. More like 3/4 of the game the way the Jets had been playing last year.

Mr. Vanderberg also stated the Jets "settled" on Justin McCareins instead of Owens, Keyshawn or a draft full of receivers. I will argue that the Jets used the draft to try to fill a bigger need: defense. No need to waste a first round pick on an easier to find quality wide receiver, when what you really needed was a hard to find fast athletic linebacker.

John Clayton in his piece asked the following question:

"Justin McCareins caught 47 passes last year, but can he become a 60 catch wide receiver?"

Maybe John can explain to us why ONLY 13 more catches in a season makes someone THAT MUCH more valuable. Let's remember, McCareins wasn't playing in a run and shoot offense last year. 47 catches on the Titans in your rookie season is a nice year. How many passes did Coles have in his first year? 22. In his second year? 59. Someone should tell John Clayton to take it easy on McCareins.

One last stat for John. McCareins yard per catch last year? 17.3. Coles since his rookie year hasn't gotten to 15 yards per catch.

Remembering the 1997 Football Season - 1st Quarter

The 1997 New York Jets football season was a revival. If there were a movie about it, you would have water references and motifs all over the place. Even in a movie like that, the symbolism wouldn't be overdone. That is how much of a revival the season was.

Talking with fellow Jets fans during the dog days of summer, or during the football-less days of March, we agree on one major thing. The 1997 New York Jets season was one of the best we have ever seen. They didn't make the playoffs, there was a tough loss to end the season, and there were some bitter losses in the middle of the season; however there was no more fun a New York Jet fan could've had. The savior had arrived, and we just wanted to go along for the ride.

Bill Parcells was in town. His first game set the tone, and shocked an entire City.

It was Labor Day weekend during a hot summer. August 31st to be exact, and the first time in a long time the NFL season started in August. Prince Diana had died the night before. Don Mattingly was getting his number retired in the Bronx. So you could imagine why the Jets wouldn't be on the forefront of most New Yorkers minds.

Seattle had rebuilt their defense in the off-season and was expecting a large performance from the likes of Chad Brown. That didn't happen. The Jets scored on their first position and didn't look back. The Jets had a 27-3 lead going into halftime as the Yankee fans filing out of Yankee Stadium were wondering about the score. When hearing the halftime score, most Yankee fans thought it was a mistake. They couldn't believe what they were hearing.

Neil O'Donnell ended the game with 5 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. You couldn't have asked for a better game from a Quarterback only one season removed from a Super Bowl run, and coming off a disaster of a season (I won't remind you about the pain of 1996). Adrian Murrell had over 120 yards rushing. The Jets were finally developing a 1-2 punch. O'Donnell, Murrell, Chrebet, Keyshawn. Yet, Jet fans were remaining cautious. As well they should have.

One more interesting note about this game: Leon Johnson (as a rookie that season) was 0 for 1 in his first pass attempt of the year. I'm not kidding.

Week 2, in the Meadowlands, the past finally came back on the Jets. The Jets lost to the Bills, and they couldn;t stop the Buffalo offense. This was a sad sad reminder of the previous... What?? 6 years. Todd Collins was at QB, and even without Jim Kelly, he picked the Jets defense apart. Ted Washington had a huge game. He was a man that eventually in the off-season pushed Parcells to make an acquisition that would anchor the Jets for years to come.

The new and improved(?) Jets were 1-1.

That brings us to Week 3. One of the most amazing and fun football games that I have ever watched. One that brought pain. Pain that I never thought I would ever recover from.

A buddy and I were watching this game in my apartment in Storrs, Connecticut. Smoking cigarettes, drinking, yelling and screaming every minute of this game. Mo Lewis had a huge interception return for a touchdown. Parcells did his best coaching job by far getting ready for this game.

This was Parcells return to New England after a messy divorce in February of 1997. John Hall became a household name by a blowing a chance to win the game at the end of regulation. Keyshawn made himself big time by catching a 30 yard touchdown pass in the final minute to tie the game.

Jets finally blew it. 1-2. That apartment in Storrs probably still stinks of the cigarettes smoked that night.

The Jets had an ugly win in Week 4. Oakland Raiders. The coach was Joe Bugel. How bad could the Raiders have been? Jeff George was their starting quarterback for ALL 16 games. That HAD to be a record for that injury prone and whinny quarterback (if you could call him a quarterback). That's why the Raiders went 4-12 that season.

The Jets won a home game, actually got a little lucky. The winning score turned out to be a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. They ended the first quarter of the season at 2-2.

A record of 2-2 was all you could ask for to start a Parcells era.

2nd Quarter of the season coming soon...